摘要:大气中CO2含量的增加速率已经超过了自然界所能吸收的速度，并逐步影响到全球气候变暖。利用模型模拟分析已经成为一个重要的工具用以深入对碳循环的理解。本文使用2008～2010年的生物模型SiB3（Simple Biosphere version 3）与优化后的CT2016（Carbon Tracker 2016）陆地生态系统碳通量驱动GEOS-Chem大气化学传输模型模拟全球CO2浓度。通过分析模拟CO2浓度的空间分布与季节变化，加深对全球碳源汇分布特点的理解，探究陆地生态系统碳通量不确定性对模拟结果的影响，进而认识陆地生态系统碳通量反演精度提升的重要性。SiB3与优化后的CT2016陆地生态系统碳通量都具有明显的季节变化，但在欧洲地区碳源汇的表现相反，其全球总量与空间分布也存在极大的不确定性。模拟CO2浓度结果表明：在人为活动较少地区，陆地生态系统碳通量对近地面CO2浓度空间分布起主导作用，尤其在南半球和欧洲地区模拟浓度有明显差异，且两种模拟结果的季节差异依赖于陆地生态系统碳通量的季节变化。将模拟结果与9个观测站点资料进行对比，以期选用合适的陆地生态系统碳通量来提升GEOS-Chem模拟CO2浓度的精度。实验结果表明：两种模拟结果均能较好的模拟CO2浓度的季节变化及其峰谷值，但CT2016模拟的CO2浓度在多数站点处更接近观测资料，模拟准确性更高。
关键词:陆地生态系统碳通量/
全球碳源汇/
GEOS-Chem模型/
CO2浓度
Abstract:The rate of atmospheric CO2 has exceeded the atmospheric system’s natural ability to efficiently absorb it, thereby gradually affecting global climatic warming. The use of model simulations has become essential to help us improve our understanding of the carbon cycle. We simulated CO2 concentration using the atmospheric chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by Biosphere Model SiB3 (Simple Biosphere version 3) and optimized Carbon Tracker 2016 (CT2016) terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes for 2008-2010. Knowing the importance of improving carbon flux inversion accuracy in terrestrial ecosystems through analysis of the spatial distribution and seasonal variation in simulated CO2 concentrations can deepen our understanding of global carbon source distribution and explore the impact of carbon flux uncertainty on simulation results. SiB3 and the optimized CT2016 terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux show obvious seasonal changes, but are opposite in European regions and there is great uncertainty about the global total and spatial distribution. Simulation results show that the carbon flux of terrestrial ecosystems are found to be key in the distribution of CO2 concentration near the ground in areas of less human activity, particularly in the southern hemisphere and Europe. Seasonal differences in the simulation re sults rely on the seasonal variations in the terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes. Simulation results are compared with the data of nine observation sites to select the suitable terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux for improving the accuracy of the GEOS-Chem simulated CO2 concentration. Experimental results indicated that two kinds of simulation results can significantly simulate the peak and valley of seasonal change of CO2 concentration, although the simulated CO2 concentration using CT2016 is close to the observation data with a high simulation accuracy at most stations.
Key words:Terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes/
Global carbon sources and sinks/
GEOS-Chem model/
CO2 concentration
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