摘要:利用区域气候模式PRECIS（Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies），首先选取若干旱涝指标，在验证模式对各旱涝指标的模拟能力的基础上，分析SRES A1B（Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B）情景下华南地区21世纪中后期（2040~2099年）各旱涝指标相对气候基准时段（1961~1990年）的变化情况，进而初步探讨华南地区未来旱涝情况的可能变化。研究表明，PRECIS能够较好地模拟出所选取的旱涝指标的年际变化和月变化特征；在SRES A1B情景下，21世纪中后期华南地区极端强降水事件的发生频率和强度都将显著增加，且强降水期将有所延长，从而使得华南地区出现雨涝灾害的可能性大大增加。与此同时，华南地区未来在春季、夏季和秋季发生气象干旱的可能性变化不显著，但在冬季发生气象干旱的可能性却将增加，尤其是在21世纪后30年冬季出现气象干旱的可能性更高。
关键词:华南地区/
PRECIS模式/
旱涝变化/
情景分析
Abstract:This paper exploits the regional climate mode PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) to analyze the changes of the drought and flood indices in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century under the SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B) scenario compared with the climatic reference period (1961-1990). Plenty of drought and flood indices are utilized first to verify the capacity of PRECIS for drought and flood indices simulation. Possible changes of the future drought and flood conditions in South China are preliminarily discussed. Results indicate that PRECIS can well simulate yearly and monthly changing features of the selected drought and flood indices. Under the SRES A1B scenario, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation event in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century will increase dramatically, and the period of precipitation extreme will increase too, thereby the possibility of flood disaster occurrence will grow to a large extent. Meanwhile, possible changes of meteorological drought in spring, summer and autumn in South China is not obvious, but in winter the possibility will rise, especially in the winters of the last thirty years of the 21st century, the possibility will be higher.
Key words:South China area/
PRECIS model/
Drought/Flood Change/
Scenario analysis
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