摘要:为了开展往返平飘式探空组网观测的仿真和模拟，以及评估组网观测对数值天气预报的影响，并实现往返平飘式探空在目标观测中的应用，本文提出了一种基于高分辨率数值天气模式的往返平飘式探空轨迹模拟和预报方法。基于我国自主研发的GRAPES区域高分辨率模式，初步建立了往返平飘式探空的轨迹预报系统。该系统将往返平飘式探空的上升段、平漂段和下降段的轨迹方程，以及下降段降落伞的动力学方程，直接嵌入到高分辨率数值天气模式中，实现对往返平飘式探空轨迹的模拟和预报。利用轨迹预测系统对63个往返平飘式探空轨迹进行轨迹预报试验和评估，试验结果表明，该系统的轨迹预测结果合理可信，6 h的轨迹预报平均误差小于40 km。
关键词:往返平飘式探空/
轨迹预测/
资料同化/
数值天气预报
Abstract:A return radiosonde trajectory forecast method based on high resolution numerical weather prediction modeling is proposed in this paper. The trajectory forecast method is intended to be used for simulating the return radiosonde network observations and supporting evaluations of the observation impacts on numerical weather predictions. Meanwhile, the trajectory forecast system will also in plan to be used for supporting the return radiosonde application in target observation experiments in the future. A return radiosonde trajectory forecast system is established by embedding return radiosonde’s trajectory equations of ascent stage, drift stage and descend stage into numerical weather prediction model GRAPES (Global/Regional Analysis and PrEdiction System), a regional model with a 3 km horizontal resolution. A dynamic equation of parachutes in descend stage is also considered in this system. By using the trajectory prediction system, the preliminary test of the return sounding trajectory prediction is carried out for 63 successful real observations of return radiosondes. The results show that the forecast trajectories using this trajectory forecast system are reasonable and reliable, with the average error of track prediction less than 40 km in 6 hours.
Key words:Return radiosonde/
Trajectory forecast/
Data assimilation/
Numerical weather prediction
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