摘要:基于加密自动站降水、葵花8卫星和ECMWF ERA5再分析等多种资料，本文对2018年6月17日08时至18日22时（协调世界时，下同）一次青藏高原（简称高原）中尺度对流系统（Mesoscale Convective System，简称MCS）东移与下游西南低涡作用并引起四川盆地强降水的典型事件进行了研究（四川盆地附近最大6小时降水量高达88.5 mm）。研究表明，本次事件四川盆地的强降水主要由高原东移MCS与西南低涡作用引起，高原MCS与西南低涡的耦合期是本次降水的强盛时段，暴雨区主要集中在高原东移MCS的冷云区。高原东移MCS整个生命史长达33 h，在其生命史中，它经历了强度起伏变化的数个阶段，总体而言，移出高原前后，高原MCS对流的重心显著降低，但对流强度大大增强。在高原MCS的演变过程中，四川盆地有西南低涡发展，该涡旋生命史约为21h，所在层次比较浅薄，主要位于对流层低层。西南低涡与高原MCS存在显著的作用，在高原MCS与西南低涡耦合阶段，两者的上升运动区相叠加直接造成了强降水。此后，由于高原MCS系统东移而西南低涡维持准静止，高原MCS与西南低涡解耦，西南低涡由此减弱消亡，东移高原MCS所伴随的降水也随之减弱。涡度收支表明，散度项是西南低涡发展和维持的最主导因子，此外，倾斜项是800 hPa以下正涡度制造的第二贡献项，而垂直输送项则是西南低涡800hPa以上正涡度增长的另一个主导项，这两项分别有利于西南低涡向下和向上的伸展。相关分析表明，在西南低涡发展期间，高原MCS中冷云面积（相当黑体亮度温度TBB≤?52°C）可以有效地指示西南低涡强度（涡度）的变化，超前两小时的相关最显著，相关系数可达0.83。
关键词:暴雨/
高原东移MCS/
西南低涡/
涡度收支
Abstract:Based on precipitation data obtained by an automatic observation station, Himawari-8 satellite black-body temperature data, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis data, we investigated a severe precipitation event wherein an eastward-propagating mesoscale convective system (MCS) originating from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) influenced a downstream Southwest vortex (SWV), causing heavy precipitation over the Sichuan Basin (maximum of 6 hours of precipitation around the Sichuan Basin totaled 88.5 mm). The main results of our analysis are as follows: this heavy precipitation event was mainly induced by the effect of an eastward-propagating MCS and a downstream SWV, with strong rainfall appearing during the coupling of the MCS and SWV within the cold cloud area of the MCS. The eastward-propagating MCS lasted for a total of 33 hours, during which its intensity obviously changed. Overall, compared with the stage prior to leaving the TP, after leaving the TP the centroid convection of the eastward-propagating MCS decreased in height but significantly increased in its convection intensity. During the lifespan of the eastward-propagating MCS, the SWV exhibited quasi-stationary behavior around the Sichuan Basin. This vortex lasted for about 21 hours and persisted in a shallow layer that was mainly located in the lower troposphere. The eastward-propagating MCS significantly affected the SWV. During the coupling of the MCS and SWV, the superposition of the ascending motions associated with the two systems directly induced the heavy precipitation. Subsequently, the MCS moved eastward, whereas the location of the SWV changed very little, which resulted in the decoupling of the eastward-propagating MCS from the SWV. This reduced the intensity of the SWV and decreased the precipitation associated with the eastward-propagating MCS. The vorticity budget indicates that the convergence effect dominated the development and maintenance of the SWV. In addition, the tilting effect was the second greatest contribution to the production of positive vorticity below 800 hPa. The vertical transport was another dominant factor in the positive vorticity enhancement associated with the SWV above 800 hPa. Overall, these two effects promoted the downward and upward extensions of the SWV, respectively. The results of our correlation analysis reveal that during the development of the SWV, the cold cloud area of the eastward-propagating MCS (using ?52°C as the boundary) could effectively reflect variation in the SWV intensity (vorticity), with the largest correlation (up to 0.83) appearing two hours in advance.
Key words:Heavy rainfall/
Eastward-propagating MCS originated from the Tibetan Plateau/
Southwest vortex/
Vorticity budget
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