摘要:本文分别从华南前汛期暴雨、江淮流域梅雨锋暴雨、华北和东北暴雨以及暴雨预报方法等方面回顾了我国近年来在三大主要雨带的观测、数值模拟、动力机理及诊断分析和预报方法方面取得的进展，指出了华南前汛期暴雨、江淮梅雨锋暴雨及华北东北暴雨研究取得的新认识，认为华南前汛期暴雨的形成机理主要是发生在低空南风向北推进过程中，由海岸线及地形抬升而产生位势不稳定造成强上升运动，以及由于南风低空急流向北发展时产生急流前部的辐合而发生流线分叉使低层低涡发展，促进垂直运动加强或使正涡度集中促使垂直运动发展而造成暴雨；江淮暴雨生成机制主要与对称不稳定、涡度场变化及β中尺度对流线有关；而华北东北暴雨过程中的非均匀饱和引起的局部湿度集中特点较为明显，中高层干冷空气入侵引起的不稳定和动量下传及高空中尺度急流增强引发的高层局地辐散增强对暴雨发生有重要作用。目前，新型探测资料已经用到暴雨研究和预报中，具有自主知识产权的GRAPES-MESO和GRAPES-GFS系统已经实现业务化，并在集合数值预报方面取得显著进步，且动力因子暴雨预报方法在很多省市气象台得到推广应用。虽然暴雨机理研究和预报已经取得以上诸方面的长足进步，但是也还存在不少问题，需要加强基于观测的暴雨中尺度系统的理论研究、数值模式动力框架和物理过程描述的改进、资料同化理论技术的发展及人工智能技术如何用到大气科学的研究和业务应用等，以期在我国暴雨中尺度系统的三维精细结构、发生发展机理和预报理论和方法研究方面取得更大进步。
关键词:暴雨/
形成机理/
预报方法/
研究进展
Abstract:This paper reviews the progress in observation, numerical simulation, dynamic mechanism, diagnostic analysis and prediction method for three major rain belts in recent years from the perspectives of heavy rainfall in warm South China, rainstorms caused by the Meiyu front in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin, torrential rain in North and Northeast China and forecasting methods for rainstorm. This paper summarizes some new understandings of intense rainfall in recent researches. First of all, it is found that rainstorms in the warm sector of South China mainly occur during the process when low-level southerly winds move northward, which is the major mechanism for rainstorm formation in South China. During this process, the potential instability caused by coastline and orographic lifting can lead to strong ascending motions. Besides, the northward movement of low-level southerly winds may converge in front of the jet stream, leading to streamline forks that are favorable for the development of cyclonic vortices or the concentration of positive vorticity and promote vertical motions, which often cause torrential rainfall. The mechanism of heavy rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin is mainly associated with symmetric instability and variation of vorticity field as well as the β mesoscale convection line. In North and Northeast China, local concentration of humidity is more obvious due to the non-uniform saturation during rainfall process. The instability and downward momentum transport caused by dry and cold air in the middle and upper levels play a significant role in rainstorm generation, while the enhancement of local upper-level divergence caused by the reinforce of mesoscale upper-level jet is also important. Recently, new sounding data have been used in rainstorm research and prediction. The GRAPES-MESO and GRAPES-GFS systems with independent intellectual property also have been put into operation, and make impressive progress in numerical ensemble prediction. In addition, the dynamic-factor approach to predict rainstorm has been popularized and applied in many provincial and municipal meteorological bureaus. Although great progresses have been achieved in the research and forecast of rainstorm mechanisms, there still exist a lot of problems. For instance, it is crucial to promote theoretical research of meso-scale rainstorm systems based on observations. Further improvements of dynamic framework and better descriptions of physical processes in numerical models and new developments of theory and technology of data assimilation are also important. Moreover, how to apply artificial intelligence technology to atmospheric research and business, how to refine the three-dimensional structure of rainstorms, how to further explore mechanisms for the generation and development of rainstorm, and how to advance the prediction theory for heavy rainfall mesoscale system all need to be considered in the future study.
Key words:Torrential/
Mechanism study/
Forecast method/
Progress
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