Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS
Colloquia & Seminars
| | Speaker: | 许利枝副教授，北京联合大学
| | Inviter: | | Title:
| Modelling international tourism flows to China: a panel data analysis with the gravity model | Time & Venue:
| 2021.12.11 11:00-12:30 N224 | Abstract:
| Based on the theoretical and empirical foundation of the gravity model, this paper systematically investigates the determinants of international tourist arrivals to China, especially various Origin-Destination (O-D) linked factors accounting for the economic-, political- and social/culture- preferences between China and its tourist origins. Utilizing a panel dataset of tourist arrivals to China from 21 countries during 1995 to 2014, the results suggest that the basic gravity determinants are specified to tourist flows, income, population, distance and relative price. All of these determinants have significant effects on tourist arrivals to China, with expected signs and sizes. Especially, four O-D linked factors are found to be significant in explaining the numbers of international tourists and have a greater tourist enhancing effect. The empirical findings indicate that human flows, goods and capital flows, proxy for economic-linked factors, are complementary for China, which is widely regarded as a global manufacturing centre. The changes in Chinese tourism ADS (Chinese Approved Destination Status) agreement policies, as the political-linked factor, did mark a significant step towards liberalization in boosting human flow-related activities. More importantly, it is found that oversea Chinese, proxy for social/culture-preferential relationship, has resulted in significant increases in tourism arrivals to China, approximate 120% when the percentage of ethnic Chinese of the total origin countries' population is more than 1%. For China chosen as the manufacturing and processing centre by international enterprises, various O-D relationships are thus important and neglected factors of Chinese tourism patterns, with important policy implications.
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